A Reflection  Population trends and speculated outcomes.

1990-2008

Nova Scotia’s website for demographics can be found at http://www.gov.ns.ca/finance/stats.div/papers/demograf/demo2.htm, Nova Scotia
Demographic Trends Into the Twenty First Century. Abortion was listed as a factor contributing to the decline of children in Nova Scotia, much to our surprise.   After reading much of the data the question might be asked, are we as a community committing culture genocide?

There had been many voices over the last decade about population implosion and possible affects on markets, few have related how these trends will affect Canada’s safety nets CPP, OAS and Medicare. Decrease in family size and the ambivalence toward family by policy makers will lead to further complications with the economy and the way of life that Canadians have come to enjoy.  Some studies/papers i.e., from the C.D. Howe Institute, Toronto, Fraser Institute, Vancouver and Atlantic Institute of Market Studies (AIMS), Halifax have covered concerns about our shrinking population base and demographic shifts and how they will affect pensions, markets and labour force.

The Nova Scotia website does ponder the effect on government policies and programs of the future.   However, it is apparent, just as the Federal government does, Nova Scotia is betting on stabilizing the population base by immigration.  Which is fine except that every country in the Western Hemisphere and first world countries are vying for people to stabilize their own population problems. Furthermore the United Nations through UNFPA is aiming at the third world to decrease their population by whatever means, the very countries to which we would be opening our doors.  Standing back and looking from outer space this picture has an alarming consequence and lacks common sense.

Take away all of the number crunching and manipulation and look for a simpler overview, which was given in 1974, Dr. R.A. Gallop, University of Manitoba to the Western Wheat Growers Association, that looked at birth rates and its effect on future strategies. 1

"We went through a period that we extended life by postponing the death rate, that was only temporary. That has now stabilized and is now about to increase. 'Population implosion' is about to become a reality. Western countries and Japan, concentrated upon decreasing their net fertility, by several effective, voluntary means. Few realized that control of births is permanent; while postponing deaths is temporary! Ireland only, replaces its deaths with live births of the western countries. (Sic) (In 2001, just barely)

We are becoming a geriatric society. Which is intrinsically terminal. Social collapse will soon follow. Slavic USSR, Sweden, Austria, West Germany, Quebec are leading this tragic parade now, with most other developed countries, including Canada, not far behind. We are decreasing are best assets, our children, (emphasis added) as fast as we are increasing our liabilities, with ever greater numbers from a disappearing tax-base and other financial pools."

You can see from Dr. Gallop's presentation, much of what he had to say is coming to fruition. He perhaps was early in his prognosis, but one cannot deny he was right. For example, Japan leads the world with the use of robotics, because of a declining work force. It has been said necessity breeds invention.  The effect of population implosion is now being felt in many European countries, which must now import workers and relax their immigration policies. Sound familiar doesn’t it?  

We can look to places like Quebec and countries that are somewhat ahead of Canada in a shrinking tax base.   Quebec is now out of denial, during the last decade they have been encouraging young families to have children, they realize that culture walks around on two legs, and does not reside in history books or language, and that culture is passed on from generation to generation.  It could be said that culture is caught, not taught.  Lucien Bouchard knew this and once spoke publicly about it, but political correctness silenced his clarion call.  The numbers are in and can be found on Quebec government's web site, information about the demographics of that province.  However, Quebec still continues to promote abortion, vasectomies, MAPs and fails to realize that by replacing their own population with those of other countries the culture they wish to protect is being eroded and will be replaced.

Quebec has gone a step farther to provide a financial incentive for young families to have children. They are finding out, it won't work on the magnitude they had hoped for, for people will not have children for the state. The increase realized from this incentive was not enough to turn their population demise around.  Quebec is a dying province.  A (CD. Howe) paper suggests that financial incentives will work, to what extent is questionable and at what price?  But we do know that a government that values families and children through policy and taxation will benefit with a healthy demographic pyramid that is supportable. Chart 2 (See attachment of the Canadian Restaurant Association that depicts this pyramid.)  The traditional family is recognized by many as being the core element of society and its survival is of the utmost importance.. 

“As the family goes, so goes the nation.”

February 2002 the Halifax Herald published a table (sourced from the Department of Education) that shows the dramatic decrease in the number of children in Nova Scotia. See chart (1) The chart shows  a dramatic decrease in the number of children and young adults in K-12 in Nova Scotia and this will continue with no end in sight.

While abortion was named as a factor, other factors not considered were aids, cancer, affects of terrorism particularly on emigration), natural disasters) in most of the data presented thus far.  Nova Scotia has a net out migration of people, according to studies done by AIMS as reported to media. This net migrate out and the increase in the number of abortions, now going on for three generations and now the Morning After Pill, (MAP) and with an aging population we can expect larger problems with those aforementioned safety nets and acceleration of the decrease in our population base. 

Rationally, this has to affect health care, education and other sectors of the economy. The cost of health care has skyrocketed and will continue to do so, on the present course, because of an aging population and ratio of older people to younger people and advances in medical technologies, i.e., transplants, aids, drugs and future treatments involving stem cells.  Which all have a price tag.  

Doctors, medical professionals, engineers and others (except teacher) will find better opportunities in places where currencies are stronger.  For a Canadian loonie will not buy very much on the world market. Other countries and locales with more money are in better shape for attracting skilled professionals via financial incentives.  Meanwhile we here at home are not having the children to enter these professions.  Those that do are attracted to other countries or regions with better working opportunities and financial incentives.

Throwing more money at the problem of health is not the answer as there is not enough money to go around to support the lifestyle that we have been enjoying. We likely will follow the model of the Baltic countries and ration health care. 

What is the solution?   Could it be getting back to basics?

Getting back to Dr. Gallop for a moment, he went on to say that, "...Technically advanced societies have recently instituted the greatest rates of barbarous slaughter of children in all of history, (practically all of them without any medical justification – italic added comment), a very rapid, very effective method of destroying society and culture, through the abortion industry. In Canada, abortion cancels out about 70% of the immigration rates, upon which we have built hopes of expanding our population that we need, for improving the domestic economy, and our urgently needed defense for our future, on this rich continent that is the envy of the world. ...Human rights remain the most fundamental issue of history. Our century has the dubious distinction of being the most barbarous of all. From communist Russia and Pre-nazi Germany, to most societies today, abortion is brutalizing our people, as it must. It is putting all of us at growing risk, in every way, especially of enforced euthanasia, its final successor for the born, as our budgets collapse from population implosion we have induced."

One major reason that our pensions and health care system are facing an ongoing crisis, is the ratio of wage earners to those who are now retired or about to retire. This is pointed out in an attached article from Toronto Right to Life for those readers who like numbers. 

Young families, or young people will not be willing to support the tax system that pays for pensions and health care as it now stands, when their primary concern will be themselves or their immediate families.

As a person who respects and values life, it seems that our government condones killing for social reasons has also been accepted by major political parties and many politicians our legislators, media and the courts.  Will they somehow with cute rationale introduce mercy killing and euthanasia for reasons other than cost?  Will it be normal fallout and will we as seniors become just a blob of cells and terminated? If one cannot trust a doctor or a politician with the life of an unborn child, can we trust them with ours?  Will there be a natural inclination to reverse the demographic pyramid that normally has fewer older people at the top, with a larger or stable population at the base and which at present is becoming inverted. See (Chart 2, attached.)

Dr. Gallop concluded with,   . . ."If a doctor will take money for killing the innocent in the womb, he will kill you with a needle when paid by your children. This is a terrible nightmare you are creating for the future."

We are now a generation with more brothers and sisters than children, this is an attribute of a dying society through low fertility rates.  We are a consumer society without consumers and without a market our economy will eventually fail.

We have a need to stabilize the demographics of our country and to get back to basics and to recognize traditional families and children as the future of our country and the contribution made by familiesTime is of the utmost importance.

New baby boom needed - Study, reads a headline, in the Halifax Daily News, April 20th, 1990.  (CP)

Canada will have to pump up immigration, baby production or both if it wants the population to grow beyond 32.7 million people (reminder people will not have children for the state, and this measure will be needed to just to maintain our population), a Statistics Canada report says. The study, released yesterday, says the population now at 26 million - will peak in year 2030 if current immigration and birth rates hold. 

Women now have an average of 1.7 babies each and the country allows in about 145,000 immigrants annually. At that level, by the year 2020 more Canadians will die annually that are born. To maintain the current annual growth rate of one per cent, Canada would have to accept 200,000 immigrants by 1995, and 320,000 by 2011 and 560,000 in 2036.  (The crossover in Nova Scotia is expected in year 2005)

Listen for the news of pension funds being in trouble, you can be sure it also applies to Medicare. For Medicare is a form of health pension and we must use it wisely to proceed, if at all.  Looking beyond the headlines and you’ll find that the demographic shift or the reversing of the population pyramid is taking place and a major contributing factor.

1As quoted in a book by Paul Marx, (Killing for Mercy),

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Sample of a billboard in France from a Reader’s Digest 1988

S ex isn’t the only thing in life: France needs children,: reads a government poster.

Will this become a billboard of the future in Canada?

Chart 1

Actual and Projected Enrollment for Students in Nova Scotia*

 

1985-1986

1990-1991

1994-1995

1999-2000

2004-2005

2005-
2006
2006-2007

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

172,614

165,739

164,020

158,205

146,076

142,304

138,661

 

 

 

 

 

*Source: Statistical Summary 1999-2000 Nova Scotia Department of Education and Legislature Library on-line, 2008

 

 

1980 - 1981 Enrollment 185,585

2006 - 2007 Enrollment 138,661

Difference -46,924

Decrease of 25.28% and judging from the table the decrease will accelerate as times goes on.

Chart 2 and 2a

           

The first example is a near normal depiction of a healthy pyramid, while the second example shows what is happening with the inversion of the pyramid.


 




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Right to Life News Canada, September 2001

Demographic Consequences of Abortion are Now Beginning to Become Evident

In Spring 2001, Statistics Canada released the latest population figures, showing that, as of April 2001, we have 30,949,900 residents in this country, up 77,900 from the beginning of the year. While, on the surface, such an increase seems healthy, the true story behind Canada's demographic situation is not as sound as one would like to believe.

The first thing that has to be taken 'into account is our runaway abortion rate: 110,331 abortions in 1998 alone, the most recent available year for statistics. For every 100 live births that year, there were 32.2 abortions. Additionally, Statistics Canada revealed that it estimates one Canadian woman in three will have had at least one abortion in her lifetime.  And the magnitude of the situation?  Between 1970 and 1998, over 2,165,050 children have been aborted in this country - a number that staggers the mind, yet continues to grow, unabated.

The number of births in Canada - about 324,000 per year - compares with about 225,000 deaths, presently. That balance, however, is gradually shifting, with current projections anticipating 336,000 births in the year 2025 overtaken by 338,000 deaths, putting Canada into a negative spiral In terms of natural population growth.

By 2016, seniors are expected to outnumber children, with the number of Canadians aged 65 or older expected to double from nearly 4 million In the year 2000 to almost 8 million by 2026. By 2051, seniors could reach 9.36 million, with only 5.05 million children in Canada. By the year 2050, It is anticipated that there will be over 55,000 people living past the age of 100 (at present, there are about 4,320).

The 9.9 million baby-boomers, now aged between 35 and 54 years, are expected to cost the health care system an additional $530 billion over the next forty years: more than half the country's gross domestic product according to a study released by the C.D. Howe Institute in February 2001.

Increased immigration Seen as Solution

"Canada," wrote Peter Shawn Taylor in the July 7, 2001 edition of Saturday Night magazine, "along with other developed countries, is in a demographic straitjacket, and the consequences are dire. Canadians are living longer than ever and, thus, expecting more from public health care, pensions, and welfare systems. At the same time, Statistics Canada forecasts that between 2000 and 2040, the ratio of seniors to members of the working population will double from the current two per ten workers to four per ten. And by 2040, the overall population of Canada will begin to shrink due to declining birth rate. The strain these twin phenomena - more seniors and fewer young workers to support them - place on Canadians social programs such as Medicare and the Canada Pension Plan is plain to see."

In response to this pending disaster, the federal government has decided to facilitate immigration, rather than encourage growth in the natural birth rate, which continues to plummet. In an article entitled "Ottawa Fears Labour Time Bomb" in the June 25, 2001 of the National Post, Luiza Chwialkowsha wrote that the federal government "has identified a demographic time bomb ticking under the national economy. The growth rate of the Canadian-born work force is expected to hit zero as early as 2011 as more workers retire that can be replaced by young people ... Fearing that a shrinking work force will stifle economic activity, Jane Stewart, the Human Resources minister, will introduce measures this fall to help skilled immigrants qualify quickly for jobs in Canada. The measures are part of the government's forthcoming Innovation Agenda, aimed at enhancing competitiveness and helping Canada vie with other countries with stagnating work forces for young professionals from the developing world."

"Canadian born workers," the article continues, "accounted for 87% growth in the work force over the first half of the 1980's, but only 55% over the second half of that decade. By the first half of the 1990's Canadian born workers accounted for only 29% of the growth - while net migration of workers from abroad made up 71%."

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In a study by Campaign Life Coalition, Public Affairs Office;

In 1992, 1993 the total cost of surgical abortions in Canada cost the taxpayers $55,964,593.00, that is 56 million dollars.  The total number of abortions was in the range of 104,000.

How Taxpayers Pay for Abortions:

There seems to be a great paradox, while we are closing classrooms, less teachers, and maternity wards, the cost seem to keep getting more and more.  Why is this?  Using CS calculator, it seems to be coupled with the high cost of medical treatments, i.e., transplants and exotic techniques that are prolonging life.  All with a very high price tag.  The cost of drugs has escalated since the change in government policy regarding generic drugs. Oh, yes, we can blame it largely on the fact we are keeping people longer and their old age is the problem.

We are now paying a bigger price that the dollar and cents, we are paying the price with less children to go on and become the new scientist of tomorrow, the new doctors, the new nurses.  In NS we have one of the largest number of Universities per capita in the Nation if not the largest.  In order for them to survive like our country we must now import students that come and go.  We soon will have to import workers to harvest our crops, much like what is now being done in some European countries and other areas in Canada.

Less children, less need for housing and all those material things that keep the economy rolling, we are a consumer society fast becoming a society with fewer and fewer consumers, that has forgotten how to cope without those markets.

Canada needs far less politicians, but could stock up on statesman.  The difference being, in that a politician looks at the next election, and a statesman is concerned about the next generation or more.

HHW

·        This document was prepared during the Month of Feb/2002 and on March 1st, we received the following from C-Family at the UN.  Their website address is www.c-fam.org

March 1, 2002

              U.N. Report Sees Aging World

              By BARBARA CROSSETTE

                   UNITED NATIONS, Feb. 28 - While many countries worry about a bulge in the number of restless young people with no jobs and too much time on their hands, the United Nations said today that the world's population is in fact steadily getting older everywhere.

              "The changes that are going on are not paralleled in any century before the 20th century," said Joseph Chamie, an American demographer who directs the United Nations population division. "We will see this trend accelerating in the 21st century."

              Mr. Chamie introduced figures show aging as pervasive – not just confined to rich countries - and likely to have profound implications on economies in all regions.

              If there were fears of instability generated by the idea of large numbers of unemployed young people becoming ready recruits for militancy or criminal activities, an older population raises other concerns.

              As the United States has already discovered, pressures mount on health care systems, health insurance plans and social security as well as private pensions. In poorer countries, some of these safety nets do not now exist. Sri Lanka, for example, has a rapidly aging population and free health care - but no social security and few pension plans outside government service.

              The United Nations found that in richer countries, people over 60 now account for one-fifth of the population. Predictions indicate that the proportion will reach one-third by 2050. In poorer countries, only 8 percent of the population is over 60 now, but that is expected to rise to 20 percent by 2050.

              With more people living longer and families getting smaller in most countries, the fastest-growing age group in the world are people over 80, the United Nations found. That group is growing at 3.8 percent annually.

              United Nations demographers are riveted on a statistic they call the "potential support ratio": the number of people 15 to 64 who are available as workers to sustain the retirees. In 1950, the ratio was 12 to 1; in 2000, it was 9 to 1. By 2050, there may be only four working-age people for every person over 65 worldwide.

              On Tuesday, Secretary General Kofi Annan released a report on the abuse of the elderly, in advance of a conference in Madrid in April on issues facing the aging. It mentioned practices like ostracism, which occurs in some societies when elderly women are used as scapegoats for natural disasters, epidemics or other catastrophes. "Women have been ostracized, tortured, maimed or even killed if they failed to flee the

community," the report read.

              It also asserted that while physical, financial, emotional and sexual abuse of older people is "grossly underreported" generally, studies done in the United States, Argentina, Australia, Britain and Canada show that the problem is found in richer as well as poorer nations.

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